Evidence that changes the decision
Relevant public research, competitor and pricing evidence, and available company or customer data. Sources are assessed for relevance and reliability.
AP3 / Commercial Decision Sprint
Before you commit ₱100,000+,
question the assumptions.
For founders and business owners weighing their next investment. Give AP3 one commercial question; get an executive decision brief and a walkthrough of the evidence, economics, and recommended next move.
One decision. Five working days. ₱15,000.
Discuss my decisionStart with the question. No payment to inquire.
Read a sample decision brief
DECISION BRIEF / 01THE QUESTION
Does the opportunity
justify the next investment?
01
The evidenceWhat can we reasonably rely on?
02
The economicsWhat needs to be true for it to work?
03
The unknownsWhich assumptions still need testing?
THE DELIVERABLE
A recommendation.
A reason.
A next step.
RESEARCH → JUDGMENT → ACTIONAP3
October 2026 intake
Monthly capacity: 3 sprints. Ask about remaining availability.
See what is included01 / THE DECISION
Reasonable assumptions.
Expensive consequences.
A new offer. More ad spend. Another location. A bigger team. The plan can sound convincing before the numbers support it.
Bring one decision that could change where you put your money, time, or people. We agree a question that can be meaningfully investigated within the Sprint.
02 / WHAT YOU LEAVE WITH
A decision you can defend.
A concise executive brief and a working conversation. Enough detail to challenge the recommendation and understand the next move.
The economics behind the plan
Where relevant, a model of the customers, conversion, acquisition cost, margin, or capacity the plan would require.
The assumptions that could break it
A clear separation between what is known, what the evidence suggests, and what remains unproven.
A recommendation and a next test
Proceed, change the plan, test first, or hold. Plus the smallest practical action to reduce the uncertainty that remains.
INCLUDED
A one-hour executive walkthrough. Challenge the assumptions. Question the recommendation. Work through the scenarios with AP3.
The brief you keep
Your agreed question, sources, economic workings where relevant, risks, recommendation, and next test. Clear enough to revisit the reasoning or share with your team.
The scope we agree
File formats, any supporting model, the framing-session length, and follow-up arrangements are confirmed before the deposit. The executive walkthrough is one hour. Customer interviews, paid experiments, and implementation are scoped separately.
THE STANDARD
The answer is not always yes.
That is part of the value.
AP3 is paid to investigate the decision. Sometimes the strongest recommendation is to test first, change the plan, or keep the money unspent. If a test is the next move, the brief identifies what to test and what evidence would justify the next commitment.
03 / INSIDE THE WORK
From the numbers
to the next decision.
See a worked example of the brief you are buying: the question, the evidence, the economics, and a recommendation you can challenge.
ILLUSTRATIVE DECISION BRIEFFictional business and figures. This worked example demonstrates the analysis; it is not a client result or a forecast for your business.
THE QUESTIONShould we double monthly ad spend
Should we double monthly ad spend
from ₱60,000 to ₱120,000?
A service business wants more paying customers. The decision depends on acquisition cost, contribution per customer, and how many customers the team can serve.
01 / EVIDENCE
Start with paid outcomes.
- Monthly ad spend
- ₱60,000
- Attributed inquiries
- 600
- Inquiries that became paying customers
- 72
- Contribution per customer, before ad spend
- ₱1,200
- Monthly capacity for ad-acquired customers
- 100
Example inputs: matched inquiry and payment records, price and variable-cost data, and the team's capacity estimate after other commitments. The contribution excludes fixed overhead.
02 / ECONOMICS
The funnel works. The full jump does not fit.
- Cost per inquiry
- ₱100
- Inquiry to payment conversion
- 12%
- Cost per paying customer
- ≈ ₱833
- Ad break-even conversion at ₱100 per inquiry
- 8.3%
- Customers at double spend, if rates hold
- 144
₱60,000 ÷ 600 = ₱100 per inquiry. 72 ÷ 600 = 12% conversion. ₱60,000 ÷ 72 ≈ ₱833 per customer. At double spend, 1,200 inquiries × 12% = 144 customers, above the 100-customer capacity.
03 / RECOMMENDATION
Test a smaller increase before doubling.
Cap additional spend at ₱20,000. If the current rates hold, this adds 200 inquiries and 24 paying customers, taking the monthly total to 96. Incremental contribution after the extra ad spend would be ₱8,800, before fixed overhead. This is a scenario, not a promise.
WHAT REMAINS UNKNOWN
Extra spend may raise inquiry costs or reduce conversion. The capacity estimate may miss service mix or staff constraints. Historical performance does not establish performance at a larger budget.
THE NEXT TEST
Track the next cohort through payment, with a ₱20,000 spend cap. Continue only if cost per inquiry stays at or below ₱100, at least 12% become paying customers, and the team can serve them. Review paid outcomes before increasing the budget again.
A real Sprint uses your agreed question and the evidence available for it.
Discuss your decisionExplore the methods behind the brief
Selected methods from AP3 research and commercial planning. Client examples are adapted and anonymized; these are work samples, not claims of results. System implementation is a separate engagement.
B2C
Connect acquisition to what actually happens.
For a business with multiple locations, the commercial question is bigger than “How many leads came in?” It is which inquiries became customers, where they dropped out, and whether the spend made sense.
CUSTOMER INTAKEAds + landing pageContact, service, preferred location
BUSINESS INTAKEApplication dataOriginal source identity retained
INTEGRATION & DATA PROCESSINGMake the incoming data trustworthy.
Validate → Normalize → Identify → Deduplicate → Route
CENTRAL COMMERCIAL RECORDOne ID. Current state. Full history.
Source + attribution · assignment · timestamps · data quality
OPERATIONSAssigned work queuesOnly records requiring local action
MANAGEMENTCommercial reportingConversion, attribution, data health
Approved status updates return through validation. The current record changes. Its history stays intact.
02 / OUTCOME HISTORYA booking is a stage.
A booking is a stage.
A payment is an outcome.
- 01Booked
- 02Confirmed
- 03Showed
- 04Paid
Cancellations, rebookings, and location changes become events. Keeping the history makes stage conversion and revenue attribution possible.
THE COMMERCIAL DECISION
Increase acquisition spend, fix the conversion bottleneck, or establish trustworthy measurement first?
See how the acquisition economics connect
COST PER PAYING CUSTOMER
Cost per inquiry inquiry to payment conversion
The acquisition model works backward from the customer target to the inquiries and budget required. Inputs remain explicit assumptions until operating data replaces them.
B2BFind the right market.
Find the right market.
Understand how it buys.
Enterprise growth needs more than a prospect list. AP3 connects market selection, account evidence, buying roles, outbound execution, and qualification into a system that can be tested.
01
Choose the market
One market, one segment, one problem hypothesis.
02
Qualify the accounts
Evidence of fit + a relevant problem + timing.
03
Map people and messages
Match each buying role to its concern and a relevant outreach angle.
04
Run a controlled sequence
Track delivery, replies, interest, and meetings held.
05
Qualify in discovery
Commercial leadership validates the problem and opportunity.
REVIEW THE EVIDENCE
Scale Change one variable Stop
PROBLEM OWNER
Does this solve the operational pain?
Owns the problem and its day to day consequences.
TECHNICAL EVALUATOR
Will it work in our environment?
Tests feasibility, integration, credibility, and risk.
ECONOMIC SPONSOR
Does the business case justify funding?
Connects the opportunity to budget and priorities.
INTERNAL CHAMPION
Can the case move forward internally?
Builds support and helps navigate the decision process.
Map roles, influence, decision criteria, and approval steps. One person may hold more than one role.
Give every layer a clear job.
- STRATEGYTest designMarket + hypothesis
- EXECUTIONSource + sequenceAccounts + contacts
- SYSTEM OF RECORDCRM + metricsMeetings + pipeline
- JUDGMENTCommercial reviewQualify + decide
Automation calculates and synchronizes. Analysis interprets the signals. Commercial leaders qualify the opportunity.
THE COMMERCIAL DECISION
Which segment, buying role, and message deserve the next test, and can the available accounts and capacity support the target?
These simplified diagrams are adapted from AP3’s architecture, research, and planning work. They demonstrate the thinking behind the Sprint. System implementation is a separate engagement.
04 / FIVE WORKING DAYS
One question.
A focused investigation.
First, we discuss fit and agree the scope, inputs, invoice, and schedule. Then the framing session sharpens the question. The research window begins after scope, deposit, and required inputs are confirmed.
What we need from you
The decision, the commitment at stake, and the options you are considering. Depending on the question, we may request pricing, costs, customer or funnel data, and capacity estimates.
You do not need perfect records to inquire. We identify missing inputs and assess whether the question can still be meaningfully researched. Meeting lengths and delivery arrangements are agreed before payment.
- 01FRAME
Define the decision and the stakes.
We clarify the question, what you already know, and the evidence that could change your mind.
- 02INVESTIGATE
Research, compare, and model.
AP3 investigates the relevant evidence, tests the economics where useful, and makes the unknowns explicit. If an evidence gap limits the answer, it is reflected in the recommendation and next test.
- 03DECIDE
Walk through the recommendation.
Once the research is complete and the second payment is received, you receive the final executive brief and a one-hour walkthrough. Together, we challenge the assumptions and discuss the next test.
05 / THE INVESTMENT
₱15,000 to investigate.
Before you commit much more.
The Sprint is useful when better evidence could change a meaningful decision: the amount you commit, the option you choose, or whether you test first. If the entire decision is worth ₱15,000, this is probably too much research for it.
THE RESEARCHABILITY GUARANTEE
If we cannot responsibly research it, we return your deposit.
We assess the question after the framing session and before full research begins. We would rather decline than deliver a report that cannot support the decision.
This covers researchability at that stage. It does not guarantee a favorable recommendation, demand, or commercial results.
COMMERCIAL DECISION SPRINTDiscuss my decision
₱15,000
Total fee, including applicable taxes.
One decision · Five working days
- Decision framing session
- Custom commercial research
- Market and competitive analysis
- Economic modeling where relevant
- Executive decision brief
- One-hour executive walkthrough
₱7,500to begin
₱7,500on completion, before the brief and walkthrough
Implementation is scoped separately.
No obligation to continue.
06 / BEFORE YOU ASK
What you should know.
Clear scope. Honest limits. No promise of certainty where the evidence does not exist.
What counts as one decision?
One bounded commercial question with a meaningful commitment behind it. For example: “Do our acquisition economics support doubling monthly ad spend?” We agree the question and scope before the deposit, then sharpen it in the framing session. Broad requests such as researching an entire market or business need a narrower question.
When do the five working days start?
The research window begins once the question and scope are agreed, the ₱7,500 deposit is received, and the required inputs are available. We confirm the delivery date before starting. Working days exclude weekends and public holidays.
What if the question cannot be researched?
If AP3 determines after the framing session that there is not enough credible evidence to meaningfully investigate the question, we tell you before full research begins and return your deposit. The refund method and expected processing time are confirmed before you pay the deposit. The guarantee covers researchability at this stage; it does not guarantee a favorable recommendation or commercial results.
Can you guarantee demand or a successful investment?
No. Public evidence and company data can inform a decision, but they cannot guarantee demand, willingness to pay, revenue, or investment returns. We distinguish facts, interpretations, assumptions, and unknowns. When a live test is needed, we say so.
Is this just desk research?
Desk research is often the starting point. The work includes evaluating sources, comparing competitors and pricing, examining relevant company data, and modeling the economics where useful. Primary customer research, paid experiments, and implementation are not included unless separately agreed.
How does payment work?
The total fee is ₱15,000, including applicable taxes. Pay ₱7,500 to begin. When the research is complete, the remaining ₱7,500 is due before the final executive brief is released and the one-hour walkthrough takes place. We confirm the scope, invoice, schedule, and refund arrangements before the deposit. Sending the inquiry form does not commit you to payment.
What happens after the Sprint?
After the second payment, you receive the final executive decision brief and a one-hour walkthrough of the evidence, economics where relevant, risks, recommendation, and next test. Follow-up arrangements are agreed in the scope before the deposit. You can execute independently. Any implementation engagement is scoped separately, with no obligation to continue.
What inputs do you need from me?
Start with the decision, the options, and the commitment at stake. Depending on the question, relevant inputs may include pricing, costs, customer or funnel data, and capacity estimates. We agree the required inputs before the deposit. Incomplete records do not prevent an inquiry; they may limit which questions we can responsibly answer.
What if evidence is missing during research?
The brief identifies evidence gaps and their effect on the recommendation. It may recommend a smaller test rather than a full commitment. The researchability guarantee applies after framing and before full research begins; it is not a guarantee that research will remove every uncertainty. Customer interviews, paid experiments, and implementation require a separate scope.
Who is this for?
Founders, owners, and decision makers weighing a meaningful commitment of money, time, or team capacity. It can apply across sectors. It is a poor fit if you only want execution, guaranteed certainty, or confirmation of a decision you have already made.
07 / YOUR NEXT DECISION
Before you bet on it,
let’s pressure-test it.
Tell us what you are considering and what is at stake. AP3 will follow up by email to discuss the fit, scope, and next available delivery window.
One decision.
Five working days.
₱15,000.
This is an inquiry, not a payment or a reservation.
INQUIRY RECEIVED
Your decision is the starting point.
AP3 will follow up at the email you provided to discuss scope and availability. You have not been charged or reserved a slot.
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